ミアシャイマー教授「米国の大いなる妄想」講演フル　アメリカの失敗の数々　※伊藤貫氏や中野剛志氏もたびたび引用する国際政治学者

after the Cold War ended the United

States pursued a policy that I called

liberal hegemony

and the main aim of that strategy was to

remake the world in America's image

a policy has failed miserably if you

look at U.S foreign policy from the end

of the Cold War until now and especially

since 2001. it's marked by a whole

series of abject failures and I'll talk

about that at Great length and the sixty

four thousand dollar question is why why

was there all this optimism in the early

1990s why did people think we had the

wind at the back our back and we were

going to be able to remake the world in

our own image and today things

don't look good at all what went wrong

and my argument is that to understand

what went wrong you have to understand

the relationship between nationalism and

realism and liberalism and I believe

again that we have followed what is

essentially a liberal foreign policy

this is called liberal hegemony

and that it has been defeated at almost

every turn by nationalism and realism

okay now the way I want to proceed is

first of all I want to talk about what

liberalism is I don't want to talk about

what nationalism is and when I talk

about liberalism and nationalism I'm not

going to say anything about

International politics at least in any

meaningful way I just want to give you a

sense for what liberalism is the United

States is a thoroughly liberal country

it is a liberal democracy both

Republicans who we sometimes refer to as

conservatives are liberals and Democrats

are liberals I'm using the term liberal

in the John lockean sense of the term

the United States was born as a liberal

democracy the Declaration of

Independence the Constitution the Bill

of Rights these are thoroughly liberal

documents we are a liberal people

okay but what exactly does that mean

it's very important that you understand

it because you have to understand what

liberalism is to understand liberal

hegemony and what went wrong

then it's very important to understand

what nationalism is John's argument is

very simple here nationalism is the most

powerful ideology on the planet and in a

contest between liberalism and

nationalism nationalism wins every time

and what I want to do is explain to you

what liberalism is what nationalism is

and why nationalism defeats liberalism

then what I want to do is talk about

what liberal hegemony is what does it

mean to say that the United States is

interested in remaking the world in its

own image so I'll describe that I want

to talk about why we pursued liberal

hegemony and of course I've tipped you

off by telling you that the United

States is a thoroughly liberal country

but there's more to the story

then I want to tell you what our track

record is I want to describe our

failures in the Middle East with regard

to Nato expansion in Russia and with

regard to engagement in China let's talk

about

the evidence that we goofed

then I want to talk about why liberal

hegemony fails and this again is

basically a story about nationalism and

realism Trump being liberalism

and then I want to make the case for

restraint what I think is the wise

foreign policy okay

let me start

with what is liberalism

they're two Bedrock assumptions that

underpin liberalism

one is that it's individualistic at its

core

and number two is that there are real

limits to what we can do with our

critical faculties to reach agreement on

first principles or questions about the

good life

now what exactly am I saying

you

you have to decide when you think about

politics whether you think human beings

are first and foremost

individuals who form social contracts

you think that human beings are

fundamentally social animals who carve

out room for their individualism

this is very very important to think

about

right

liberalism is all about individualism

liberal theorists are known as social

contract theorists because they believe

that individuals come together and form

social contracts

so the focus is on the individual the

Assumption underpinning liberalism is

not that human beings are social animals

from the get-go

that's the first point

the second point is that liberalism

assumes that we cannot use our critical

faculties we cannot use reason to come

up with truth about first principles

think about issues like abortion

affirmative action you cannot get

Universal agreement on those issues

right and I'll talk about this more as

we go along but the roots of liberalism

are traced back in my opinion to the

religious wars in Britain between

Catholics and Protestants and the fact

is you cannot use your critical

faculties to determine whether

Catholicism is a superior religion to

protestantism or vice versa or whether

atheism is superior to both of them

where Judaism or islamist area to

Catholicism and protestantism who knows

right you just can't reach agreement

there are real limits

to what we can do with our critical

faculties okay so these are the two

Bedrock assumptions one you focus on the

individual

and number two you accept the fact that

you can't reach Universal agreement

now

central question how should politics be

arranged to deal with this potential for

violence and you say yourself what does

he mean potential for violence the fact

is that Catholics and Protestants were

killing each other in huge numbers not

only in Britain but all over Europe

people today she is in sunnis kill each

other because they can't agree on

whether she has a sonism is the correct

interpretation of Islam

Communists versus liberals people can't

agree on first principles and when they

can't agree on first principles if they

feel really strongly about them there is

potential for violence

so when you have all these individuals

running around

who

don't agree they may agree in some cases

but don't universally agree

there's tremendous potential for

violence

so liberalism is basically an ideology

that's based on conflict and the

question is how do you solve that

conflict

there's a three-part solution and this

should be dear to all of your hearts

the first is

you focus on individual rights remember

the importance of the individual

you know the Declaration of Independence

life liberty and the pursuit of

happiness

those are natural rights those are

inalienable rights this means that every

person on the planet has a particular

set of Rights

sometimes defined as freedoms

this is to say you if you want to be

Protestant have the right to practice

that religion and if I want to be a

Catholic I have the freedom I have the

right to be a Catholic

the name of the game is to recognize

that everybody has these freedoms to

choose

this makes perfect sense when you think

about Catholics killing Protestants

right or Jews killing Muslims or

whatever group you want atheists killing

believers

communist killing

whatever right the point is you want to

focus on the individual and let the

individual choose for him or herself

what kind of Life they want to lead you

want to let them lead as much as

possible their version of The Good Life

and very important every person on the

planet

has that right

and let me get ahead of myself here just

put this seed in your brain If you focus

on individualism and inalienable rights

you go almost automatically from an

individualistic ideology to a

universalistic ideology

right because again you're focusing on

the individual you're saying every

individual has a set of Rights every

individual on the planet that

individualistic

ideology becomes a universalistic

ideology

but we're talking about

the individual here the second is you

purvey the norm of Tolerance

we talk about tolerance all the time

universities are really big on tolerance

we're supposed to tolerate opinions that

we don't like

you bring in speakers or you allow

speakers to come in who say things that

you find reprehensible

right tolerance really matters

but the fact is the tolerance only takes

you so far because you're dealing with

people who sometimes are so committed to

their beliefs

you know somebody who believes that

abortion is murder is willing to murder

a Doctor Who practices abortion right so

you need a state that's the third

element of the equation you need a state

that's effectively a night Watchman that

makes sure that those people over there

who want to live as Protestants don't

attack those people who want to live as

Catholics or vice versa this is the

liberal solution this is what America is

all about

individualism we talk about it all the

time we talk about rights everybody has

rights my kids over the years have

always reminded me when I tell them that

they have to do X Y and Z that they have

rights

and I cannot interfere with their rights

right that's the way we're educated from

the get-go and of course we're a

remarkably tolerant people as societies

go not completely but that's of course

why we have a state

right you gotta have a police force

you've got to have a system of Courts

right so that's that's what liberalism

is all about right liberalism focuses on

the individual right pervades the norm

of Tolerance and accepts the fact that

you need a night Watchman State now

let's talk about nationalism

different animal

nationalism is based on the assumption

that human beings are social animals

we are born and we are heavily

socialized into tribes

we are not born in the state of nature

we are not individuals born and left

alone in the woods we are born into

groups we are very tribal

so you see in terms of starting

assumptions or Bedrock assumptions what

underpins nationalism what underpins

liberalism very very different

and individualism takes a back seat to

group loyalty

right

somebody around the world kills an

American

Isis kills an American it's

fundamentally different

than killing a Saudi or killing a Brit

because you're killing one of us

this is the tribe right you're an

American

Americans look out for other Americans

we're social animals from the get-go

and aside from the family the most

important group remember I said that

you're born into and heavily socialized

into particular groups putting aside the

family the most important group in

today's world

is the nation

I'll say more about that in a second

what's nationalism here's my simple

definition

it's a set of political beliefs

which holds

that a nation a nation a body of

individuals with characteristics that

purportedly distinguish them from other

groups should have their own state

think of the word nation state nation

state nation state embodies what

nationalism is all about it says the

world is divided up into these tribes

called Nations and each one of them

wants its own state

if you think about the world today just

look at a map of the world today it is

completely covered with nation states

nothing but nation states if you went

back to 1450 and you looked at a map of

Europe there isn't even a single state

on that map over time the growth of the

state and then the growth of the

nation-state

you move to a world that is filled with

nothing but nation states

look at the Palestinians and the

Israelis the Jews

who believed in Zionism

what is Zionism all about it's all about

having your own Jewish State Theodore

herzl who's the follower of Zionism his

most famous book is called the Jewish

State Jewish nation state what do the

Palestinians want two-state solution

Palestinians want their own State

Palestinians are Nation they want their

own state

the planet is filled with Nations many

of which have their own state

almost all of which want their own State

nation state right that's what

nationalism is all about

taking a step further

Nations Place enormous importance on

sovereignty

or self-determination

which is why they want their own State

the Palestinians don't want the Israelis

deciding

what their politics should look like

Palestinians want their own State Jews

want their own State Germans want their

own state

Americans want their own state

because they believe in sovereignty you

saw this with Donald Trump remember

Donald Trump ran in the campaign on a

platform that he referred to as America

first

just think about that America First

America

particular Nation

take care of us first and he has made it

very clear that he does not want anybody

interfering in our sovereignty and he

was saying yesterday he doesn't think we

should be interfering in the sovereignty

of other countries

right that's recognition of the power of

nationalism

so Nations

want their own State and then once you

get nation states they Place enormous

importance on sovereignty or

self-determination who are these

Russians to be interfering in our

elections the United States is a

sovereign country no country like Russia

or any other country for that matter has

the right to interfere in our elections

the basic argument here that's what

nationalism is really all about

okay so you get a feel for the

difference between liberalism and

nationalism liberalism focuses on the

individual

and therefore because it emphasizes

individual rights which everybody has

has a universalistic dimension

nationalism is particularistic at the

core

right fundamentally different

okay so what's liberal hegemony I've

given you the definition

of liberalism and the definition of

nationalism that I've worked out let me

talk a little bit about liberal hegemony

it's basically an attempt to remake the

world in America's image

it has three components

first is

spreading liberal democracy all over the

globe and the reason that I put three

stars

up there is it is the most important of

the three

this is the idea that we want to turn

every country into a liberal democracy

we want every country on the planet to

have the same political system that we

do here in the United States

second goal is we want to integrate more

and more countries into the open

International economy

this is where we have an emphasis on

free trade lots of economic intercourse

right free Capital flows and so forth

and so on you know the whole story

and then third is we want to integrate

more and more countries into

International institutions like the

World Trade Organization the IMF NATO

think NATO expansion the TPP

trans-pacific partnership which the

Obama Administration was building in

which president Trump

cashiered okay the liberal

story places a great emphasis on

institutions it places a great emphasis

on an open International economy and

most importantly on spreading democracy

just to give you a feel for this Donald

Trump ran against liberal hegemony

right and liberal hegemony to be clear

was supported by both Republicans and

Democrats as I like to say the

Republicans especially but the Democrats

also like to make the argument that

there's a big difference between the two

parties on foreign policy this is not a

serious argument this is Tweedledee and

Tweedledum hardly any difference between

the Republicans and the Democrats

there's a real difference between Donald

Trump and both of them remember Donald

Trump ran the table in the Republican

primaries by criticizing the Republicans

performance on the foreign policy front

for decades and criticizing the

Democrats in the general election Donald

Trump said I'm not interested in

spreading liberal democracy across the

globe and in fact he was quite

comfortable

making nice with dictators second he was

not interested in supporting an open

International economy in fact he is

showing today that he is willing to put

tariffs on China Canada and our European

allies and as far as International

institutions are concerned he said NATO

is obsolete he was

contemptuous of the World Trade

Organization contemptuous of the

European Union does not like the IMF

does not like the World Bank does not

like NAFTA cashiered the TPP that's

that's Donald Trump he ran against this

but Obama George W bush Bill Clinton

George H.W bush they embraced this after

the Cold War ended

and by the way it was the failure of

this policy it's the failure of American

policy that helped put Donald Trump in

the White House

for those of you who say to yourself how

could this man have ever been elected

president of the United States I'm

telling you an important part of the

story

right it's the failure of the foreign

policy Elites in this country

to produce over the past

30 years

okay

what are the benefits of liberal

hegemony this is very important

in other words why did we go down this

road in part is due to the fact that

foreign policy Elites in the United

States had a story to tell about how

this was going to lead to all sorts of

wonderful consequences first of all if

you turn every country on the planet

into a liberal democracy you basically

eliminate significant human rights

violations we don't need r2p or any more

of these policies that are designed to

run around the world protecting human

rights because human rights are no

longer threatened because the world is

comprised of nothing but liberal

democracies second and maybe even more

importantly

liberals tend to believe and again I'm

using liberals to include Democrats and

Republicans they believe in what's

called Democratic peace theory that is

that liberal democracies don't fight

each other so if you can create a world

of nothing but liberal democracies

they don't fight each other peace breaks

out

and problems like proliferation and

terrorism are taken off the table and

it's just the world peace love and dope

can't get much better than that right

and then finally it makes the world safe

for Liberal democracy as you all know

inside every liberal democracy there are

going to be elements who don't like

liberal democracy

when I was a kid this was the Communist

Party in the United States well if

there's no Soviet Union out there that's

a communist state that can interact with

those Communists in the United States

that you don't have to worry about those

Communists in the United States getting

support from abroad so what we do is we

make the whole planet

nothing but liberal democracies and that

really ameliorates the problems that any

of these liberal democracies have on the

home front because there's no foreign

power that can assist them this is a

Woodrow wilson-like argument made by the

likes of George Bush right so these are

the three great benefits of liberal

hegemony and this is what propelled

people to pursue this policy of remaking

the world in America's image which

mainly means spreading liberal democracy

now why did the U.S pursue liberal

hegemony

first of all as I said to you folks

before the United States is a profoundly

liberal country

it makes the United States a wonderful

place

you should understand here

that I am not arguing that liberalism is

a Bad Thing period end of story I

actually think that liberal democracy is

the best political system you can

possibly have and I thank my lucky stars

that I was born in the United States of

America a liberal democracy and raised

in a liberal democracy I would want it

no other way

my argument is that liberal democracy is

the best of all possible political

systems that you can have but as a

foreign policy

liberalism is bankrupt right so you

understand the argument I'm making here

but this is a fundamentally liberal

country and realists like me John

Schuster Jason Castillo they can tell

you this realists like me and them have

a tough time in America because liberals

don't like realists right that's why so

many people don't like me right because

I'm a realist on foreign policy grounds

right right so this is a profoundly

liberal country and just to go back to

that slide

when you start trying to sell these

kinds of arguments in the early 1990s

it's very easy to do

America is just gravitate to these

arguments because it is a liberal

country

second

American nationalism supplied an

unhealthy dose of hubris to the equation

this is a very important part of the

story

John told you that nationalism is the

most powerful political ideology on the

planet

what I'm telling you also I didn't say

this before I'm going to tell you now

the United States is a very

nationalistic country if you go to the

library here University of Chicago

Harvard you name it right there are

whole wings of the library that are

filled with books about American

liberalism

there is probably one shelf worth of

books on American nationalism because we

never talk about ourselves as a

nationalistic country we are very

nationalistic let me just say a few

words about this Madeleine Albright

canonical liberal right loves liberal

hegemony is famous for saying this

America is the indispensable Nation

we stand taller and we see further

this is pure unadulterated nationalism

America is America as opposed to the

other

right that America is the indispensable

there's the word Nation Nation as a

nationalism we we are the indispensable

Nation we stand taller and we see

further

we are superior you all know we're the

city on the hill right we have the right

we have the responsibility and we have

the capability to transform countries

all around the world into liberal

democracies

nationalism

so what I'm saying to you here

oh let me just give you another example

American exceptionalism you surely all

believe in American exceptionalism and

if any of you plan to run for political